I wanted to continue to grind cash tables 1-2 hours per day, and try to get a better approximation of how much I can expect to win. Last month I was winning 13BBs/100hand over 14.5k hands... which is just stupid.
This month I played 34.5k hands, and lost about 3BBs/100hands. Overall this brings me a to 1.73BB/100hands on the year at NL100 over almost 50k hands. However I have been running under allin-expectation over that time.
In February my profit line was about $650 over my allin-ev line. In March my profit line was about $1150 under my allin-ev line. If you look at my allin-ev line for the year I would be at almost $1400 profit. Which would lead me to 2.85 BB/ 100 hands. I think this is a decent approximation of how I can expect to perform longrun at NL100. Maybe a bit higher if I can make some solid adjustments. Below I have my graph for the month of March, as well at my graph for the year (which is just half of Feb and March... when I get HEM). Each of them has the allin-ev line included (the lighter green line), so you can see where I was running good at first, then quickly things changed.
March:
Year-to-date:
As you can see I finished up -$1027 on NL100 games... no bueno, but if I ran at my allin-ev I would have rolled over a small profit, so I don't think there were any glaring problems other than just running really bad.
One problem I used to have was how to deal with downswings. Before I didn't have a good sense of bankroll management, but now that I keep a very healthy 40 buyins in my account, it was much easier to handle the 7 straight losing sessions I had where I dropped almost 14 buyins. I don't feel like I tilted very badly in any of my sessions... in a few I quickly got off all my tables when things got too ugly and I knew I could no longer play well. I also developed a few things I started to help avoid playing bad based on results...
I stopped checking on HEM throughout my session to see how much I was up/down. I found that when I was constantly checking this, I was too focussed on the results, and less focussed on just playing good poker. The second thing I just started in the last few days was to not watch a table after I got it allin preflop, or prior to the river. If I was in a race situation against a short stack, or got it in good on the turn/flop against another hand, I didn't really want to see if they sucked out. Most of the time I would figure it out by my stack size later on, but by not watching the final result it helps me to not let it tilt me when I am getting pwned by suckouts.
I think I can have a profitable month in NL100 in the month ahead as I continue to put in 1-2 hours a day (hopefully more on weekends) and turn over a good profit (somewhere in the 2-5 bb/100 range)
I also wanted to keep playing tournaments as my availability allowed, and keep trying to find ways to improve.
This goal I feel very good about. This month was a major disapointment in general when it comes to tournaments. Because I made several deep runs but no final tables as something always got in the way. However, in MTTs and 90man sngs I turned over a profit of $833 (mostly because of a few 90 man wins). However, I think the experience I gained from all the deep runs will help me immensely in the following months. I have picked up on some small and major mistakes I made late in tournaments. My last two deep runs I think I played near-perfect (at least for my skills and abilities) and it is only a matter of time before I roll off some big final table cashes.
The big thing Jimmy and I talked about Saturday morning kind of encompasses all of what I've learned. When I get deep I really need to take my time over each decision. Think about all the factors involved so I can make the best move. Taking my time will allow me to not make the little mistakes I have made in the past.
I want to continue to play in tournaments when I can, and I think I can except to score some big cashes in April. The experience I have gained this last month should go a long way. I also played in a couple of live tournaments. The Ocean's tournament was brutal, because I played so well and would have definitely made the money and beyond if my AA held up with about 35 people left. The two harrah's tournaments went poorly and I didn't feel like I played super well. Although suckouts were a big part of my lack of success in those too. I lost like $900 from those three buyins.
I played 3 sessions of live cash games. The results were +330, -500, and even. So I was -$170 from that. So in live play I was down a little over a grand on the month.
Online I was -$1027 on NL100, +$833 in Tournaments, and +$430 on rakeback (luckily rakeback will always be positive). So total for the month comes out to +$236. It's always good to stay out of the red, but needless to say I expect much better in April.
If I can beat NL100 over 35k hands at 3.5BB/100 that would lead to $1225 profit. But I think I can get in more hand volume than that, as well as beat the game for a higher BB/100. Throw in some likely tournament success and I think I can roll off a big month.
That's all for now, I plan on enjoying my two days off (even though I have plenty of school work) then hit the tables again starting on the first of the month.
-Boooom
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